The Fed will remain on hold until they are confident that tariff inflation has passed through and they have had time to assess the uncertain evolution of war in the Middle East.

With the broader economy still relatively solid and unemployment steady, the need for greater progress on inflation and clarity on the outlook will push any rate cuts out until December at the earliest, barring any unforeseen deterioration in labor markets.

Conversely, an unexpected de-anchoring of inflation expectations could even bring a pivot toward hikes, instead.

Chair Powell will remain at the Fed until DOJ investigations are unambiguously resolved and potentially longer to safeguard the US central bank's independence - ensuring his influence endures beyond his tenure as Chair.